Massive rise in women player numbers in England... but don't tell anyone...

Questioning RFU and RFUW's player statistics has been a continuing theme of this blog for some years. The way in which Twickenham appeared to be wildly under-estimating the number of women and girls playing rugby was first pointed out in 2009, and a post last autumn pointed out how laughably inflated the number of boys playing the game seemed to be.

All of these numbers were culled from the IRB website, and a few months ago - some weeks after the second article appeared, in fact - all of England's data mysteriously disappeared.

Well now its back... and its changed. Wow has it changed!

Up until recently (like when I last looked in detail, which was about 2009) the data said that there were around 180,000 men playing rugby in England, and a mere 6,000 women. Or about 3% of the total. Well, now RFU are claiming there are 131,000 men... and 25,000 women.

That means that 16% of adult rugby players in England are women - one in SIX. It also represents an apparent leap in player numbers of 400% in about three years, which you think might be worth celebrating? On the other hand, in reality, what it does show is that all of the RFU's data published up until now - you know, the data they used to win grants from the government etc. - was probably complete tripe and it may be that they do not want anyone to know this.

Is this data likely to be any more accurate? Well, yes - it probably is as it is a much better match for Sport England's 2009 estimate of 17,500 women players than the old 6,000 figure was. Note that France have recorded a 17% rise in their player numbers in the past 12 months alone, so a rise from 17,500 to nearly 25,000 in three years is not impossible.

The corresponding drop in male players also suggests that the theory put forward on here - that, due to defaults on the Rugby First database many female players were being registered as male - may have been correct.

What is even more amazing, though, are the junior numbers. Pre-teen players are up from 2,787 in 2009 to 408,072. No - you have not misread that, that really is a 10,000% increase. Teenage player numbers are up from 3,794 to 129,121 - a paltry 3,000% rise.

Now, RFUW can claim all they like about the success of the U13 scheme, but it ain't that good. I would instead suggest that  the data they used to justify the panicked and damaging introduction of this game was total rubbish. Maybe an apology to every club in the land is in order?

You can see all the new numbers here.

U13s: Important RFUW announcement

Two major announcements concerning the U13 band were made today:

U13 Dispensation will continue for the 2012/13 season All players must be 12 years of age as of midnight on the 31st August 2012 and of played club rugby during the 2011/12 season under the RFU continuum, only players that have been registered on Rugby First before the season closed on the 12th May 2012 will be approved to play U15 Girls rugby. Applications will be made through a new enhanced application form and this form will be available on line.  Any club applying for dispensation must prove over the coming season that they  endeavour to set up playing pathways for any future U13 girls. 

While the only logical decision I confess to being slightly surprised, but clubs now have about two weeks to ensure that any girls with a smattering of interest in the game are registered before the deadline as at least they will get a choice about what game they play, though realistically this is either playing U15s or playing practically no rugby at all.

And even better, of course, it means that girls with years of mini experience (ie. the ones that will go on to play for England) will not be forced to return to the rugby kindergarten.

Slightly worrying that this will continue to be reviewed each year - difficult to see what the down side is for anyone.

Introducing the U11 age band to the U13s making the age band open to all girls aged 10, 11, and 12 years of age at midnight on the 31st August 2012.Any girls playing rugby in the RFUs U11 age band have the opportunity to join an U13 girl’s side if they wish or they \can continue to play rugby under the RFU continuum. 

The rational[sic] for introducing this option is to try and stop the drop out at the U11 age group as research shows this is taking place due to the introduction of playing contact with the boys. 

Two matters of note here. Well, three. The first is the very sensible decision to expand the U13 band to a three year band - why not go the whole hog and make it a three year U12 band with no overlap with U15s, I am tempted to ask, but you cannot have everything.

Secondly - note that the RFUW seem to now be adopting the RFU definition of a person's age, not the old ambiguous "11 on 1st September" that has caused so much fun and confusion over the years. Hopefully the same will now apply to the definition of U15 and U18?

Finally - the alleged drop out from minis due to the introduction of contact. Sorry - what research? And is the problem really contact, or boys? I strongly suspect it is the latter, and not the former, being as boys of around this age do often show signs of regression into Neaderthalism which most sensible girls would want nothing to do with. But just because girls get fed up playing contact rugby with boys who are incapable of basic communication or understanding words like "pass" does not mean that they dislike playing contact. Well, that always seemed to be the case with the ones I spoke to.

Oh - and could someone at RFUW get a dictionary out and look up the words "rational" and "rationale"? Just a suggestion.

Junior Leagues - full speed for the iceberg!

Details about next season's RFUW junior leagues have been revealed, along with next season's junior calendar, in a mailing to all junior clubs. The letters detail that the planned U15 Leagues will be as last year - ie. games for between 7 and 10-a-side [odd, I thought U15 rugby was a 13-a-side game?], however the U18 Leagues could be significantly different.

While - again - games will be for 10 to 15 a-side, clubs will not be able to enter the U18 league unless they have at least 18 registered players - and there will be separate leagues for "developed" and "developing" clubs. Alternatively (presumably if there are insufficient entrants in an area) there will be a "Challenge Series" of four festivals, with "friendlies" covering the rest of the season.

The state of the leagues was discussed last month, and given the decline in both competing clubs and completed games at U15 level "carry on regardless" does seem, at best, odd - especially when compared with what is proposed at U18 level. A similar system of festivals - what sounds a bit like the old "SW League" - would actually make far more sense at U15 level.

From information I have seen about the state of U15 rugby, after one year of the U13 scheme, there is little doubt that entries for the leagues will be even lower this year. Across East Anglia and Middlesex it is likely that there are probably three - at most four - entrants (and one of those will be a cluster) a truly appalling state of affairs when you consider how many U15 teams the region had before the RFUW began its leagues. And no - the decline is not a co-incidence. Not even slightly.

With so few entrants any club entering a U15 league is therefore likely to be faced with ludicrously long journeys to fulfil their fixtures - thus guaranteeing that many games will not take place, and so the spiral of decline will continue. Its crazy - why not just gather all the clubs together in one place for a 7s or 10s festival like, well, we used to do?

The decline of U15 rugby has clearly been accelerated in this area by U13 rugby, as this has ensured that clubs have even fewer players. There is little doubt that for club rugby in Hertfordshire the U13 scheme in  has not been a disaster but a complete catastrophe. Across the county surveys indicate that there are fewer than 20 U13s who have joined a club, and only one club would be remotely capable of fielding a team.... which means that that club has no one to play! Obviously the U13s could be all brought together at county level to form a county team (like we used to do with the U12s)... if the RFUW had not forbidden inter-county U13 rugby!

Will this madness never end? Well, clearly not as the Junior Calendar (see below) now has a whole host of dates set aside for inter-club U13 rugby! ROFL! It is a level of self-delusion that is mind-blowing.

Compared to this insanity and hole digging, the proposals for U18 leagues are actually remarkably imaginative. The  festival idea is an interesting proposal which would - in effect - return the running of U18 rugby to the counties and regions with a game based around friendlies and festivals. This will happen if insufficient clubs enter the main league in any area - a distinct possibility because of the minimum number of players needed to enter. I mean, even at the peak if the junior game, about 4-5 years ago, how many clubs were there that had 18 or more players at U18 level? Half a dozen, at best, nationwide?

The one snag, however, is that this requirement may well encourage the more ambitious coaches and pushy parents to drive to set up Super Clubs of the sort we saw in the discredited and unlamented National Cup, which would be a disaster for everyone else for reasons discussed too often on here.

So - what we could we look forward to next season? Potentially it is a disaster of Titanic proportions:

• Girls who have been playing mini rugby moving into U13s and giving up on the game either because they find that there is no rugby for them to play, or if there is its a weird form of the game that they thought they had left before at U9s;
• A tiny sprinkling of U13 girls joining a club having started playing at school, but giving up for much the same reasons as above;
• The odd club forming a U13 team... but finding there is no-one for them to play within at least 50 miles or more;
• U15 leagues, but with fewer clubs than last year, resulting in teams having to travel insane distances across country to play maybe one game of 7s;
• A small number of U18 super clubs cherry-picking the best players and playing in a national league.

Of course it may not all be like that. There are some potential lifeboats. U18 coaches may have the sense to consider all their players, and the game as a whole, ahead of the gleam of silverware and go for the festival model. And in Hertfordshire at least the county's internal U15 and U18 leagues and cluster events will continue - a fine example of what can be achieved if you ignore RFUW edicts and carry in regardless. Wouldn't it be great if the rest of the country could do the same?

Finally - the Youth Calendar for next season....

U13 rugby: Wales tackle their retention problem, and learn from RFUW mistakes

News from Wales where the WRU has proposed changes to their age banding, almost exactly a year after the RFUW introduced the controversial U13 band in England.

Details are a bit thin, but it is clear that the Welsh are taking a different route to England, and with different aims.

• There appears to be no suggestion about a new, untried, set of rules being introduced
• The aim of the change is primarily to retain girls currently playing mixed mini/midi rugby - the introduction of new players will be easier, it is hoped, but this is clearly secondary. 
• The WRU changes will work through a system of "local development centres" in each "population centre" - which will be hosted at a club, based on its facilities and location. Not schools.

As such the scheme is in marked contrast to that of the RFUW - indeed it might even be suggested that the Welsh have been watching from over the border and learning a few very important lessons.

It is fascinating that the aim is retention, for example. As pointed out on here repeatedly a glance at the England team will show you that almost every player in that team started playing with the minis - very few girls who starting playing in their teens (never mind university) now go on to play the game at the highest level. Wales have recognised that we should be treating mini-rugby girls like precious jewels, making sure they are not lost, and as a result have come up with a plan that is the complete reverse of RFUW's policy which is entirely focused on finding new players and (especially if last season's dispensations are removed) pays no heed at all to retention whatsoever - indeed makes the problem worse.

Even more impressive is the "local development centre" concept, which - if it can overcome inter-club rivalries - will be a huge boost. Details of all the Centres are listed on the WRU site, where many have the support of international players (my only observation is that all seem to be in South Wales). If you can bring all of an area's mini/midi girls - with several years of rugby experience already behind them - together at the age of 11 or 12, what an amazing team you will have by U15 or U18. And also what a positive atmosphere for new girls to join.

So best wishes to Wales - I think we will all be watching how your system develops with great interest.

Girls' rugby: a health report

The RFUW's review of the U13 game, and the U15 and U18 leagues, has yet to report but responses to last week's item do seem to suggest that some people have doubts about the outcomes:

I am not convinced the RFUW survey will help anyone. I think the RFUW have fooled themselves with statistics as to how successful they are. We hear reports that more girls are now playing rugby due to the new U13 format. This is because RFU staff are going into schools and delivering programmes and counting these heads. They are not getting these kids to clubs and clubs are suffering.

The concern is that, while more girls are playing this introductory game at school, very few players are making their way into clubs - and that the club game, and especially the U15 age band, is struggling.

One way to test this - well, the only way - is to look at the number of clubs competing (club registrations mean little - it can often be little more than a statement of intent, the hope that a girls team will be formed - and as for player registrations... ROFL!). Fortunately the leagues have published results, and we can even compare this season with last. Not all teams play in the leagues, obviously, but the major teams probably do.

What is remarkable is the contraction in entries. For 2010/11 there were 9 U15 and 9 U18 leagues, with 54 and 57 clubs entered respectively. This season that had shrunk to 5 U15 and 6 U18 leagues, with 36 and 41 entries - a loss of a third of the U15 teams and a fifth of U18s.

However, that might be understandable. Last season the leagues were starting out and clubs were pretty much blackmailed to enter very early even if they did not know if they could make the games. So the lost teams means that for 2011/12 the leagues will have consolidated down to the strong well-established clubs.

Or you'd hope so. There is, however, one way of testing this. How many games have actually been played? last season, at the time we reviewed the league, 531 matches had been "played", of which 179 had ended in walkovers - just over a third (33.7% to be exact).

So - if in 2011/12 we have reduced the competition down to the strong and reliable then this walkover rate should have fallen. Dramatically.

The trouble is - the scary thing is - it hasn't. Overall 388 games are now recorded as being "played", and 114 have been walkovers - a small reduction (29.3%), but still roughly a third and hardly the sign of a healthy game.

Admittedly its a mixed picture. Some U18 leagues have gone very well - every game so far in London South has been played, and only one game in North U18s resulted in a walkover. But the U15s is a different matter - overall it is worse than last season. 66 out of 182 U15 games have been walkovers - 36%. In Midland U15 the opposition has failed to show up for nearly half the games - 15 out of 32 - and South and London North have been nearly as bad.

The implications of this are very worrying. Indeed. In 2010/11 a third of all games were walkovers, and the result was that a third of clubs failed to register for this season. If that pattern is followed in the future (and there seems no reason why this would not be the case)...

• In 2012/13 there will be 24 U15 teams and 30 U18 teams in 4 leagues
• By 2013/14 there will be 16 U15 teams and 23 U18 teams in 3 leagues
• By 2014/15 there will be 10 U15 teams and 18 U18 teams in 2 or 3 leagues...

Well, you get the idea.

Someone remind me - how many teams were there playing in the various very successful "unofficial" leagues - Surrey, and Thames Valley, and South West, and Midlands - before the experts in Twickenham thought they knew best and took it all over? And then decided to "help" the U15 age band by taking a third of its players away?

Its almost as if, embarrassed by the success of the national team, RFUW are determined to torpedo the game below the waterline by killing off junior girls' rugby. In fact I can't think of a better explanation...

U13s: What's the verdict?

The continued success of England at international level is not unrelated to the numbers and quality of the young players coming through to the national team. At least half-a-dozen of the current elite squad could still play U20 rugby, and star players like Emily Scarratt are still at university - the age and place that, ten years ago or so, most England players started playing.

Girls rugby at clubs around the country has therefore made a huge contribution to England's success, bringing girls into the game, and developing their talent before they move on to greater things (a fact that is often ignored, even in some individual player biographies). England's success is based on the club system, and one of the best pieces of advice with any system is "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Tinkering around should be done with care, and for a very good reason.

The only major difficulty with the existing system was the drop-out of girls from around the age of 9 who did not want to play mixed rugby, a situation made worse when U15 rugby came in as there was no longer anywhere that 11-year old girls wanting to play rugby could go.

Then a year ago, out of the blue, RFUW came up with a solution - the introduction of U13 rugby - a type of game designed to encourage secondary schools to offer the game.  The aim was that more schools would offer this simpler game, and player numbers would therefore increase (thereby saving the RFU's grants from Sport England). However, it was a huge gamble as the new age band cut across the existing U15 club age band - where player numbers were already a problem. Intense lobbying against the change from clubs was all but ignored

So, a year on, what effect has it had?

Well, on one level it may have succeeded. Certainly the entry for the London North Schools tournament in Bishops Stortford last week was larger than ever before, with some 50 or so teams competing in the U13 and U15 competitions (with Hertfordshire schools dominating the winners' podium). Quite what the situation has been around the country is anyone's guess as such information is all but impossible to obtain.

The trouble is that, while schools can be useful in introducing the game, with an overcrowded PE curriculum, and increasing pressure from academic subjects, the days when a sport could rely on schools to provide their new young players are long gone. In all sports now it is the clubs where the next generation of stars can be found - and unless these schoolgirls are making it through to club rugby then the rise of players will have no effect on the game as a whole.

And this is the problem. The new system is totally dependent on whether schools in an area are willing to offer girls rugby (given a multitude of alternative sports), and - just as important - whether a club has good links with those schools. Where the two come together it seems to be working - several of the successful Herts schools were from North Herts and Stevenage, and as Hitchin have had strong links with these schools for years, they are benefiting. However, where few schools take up the game well established girls clubs like Saracens are now struggling. Similarly schools offering U13 rugby where there are no clubs will mean that sporting girls will go to other sports, the effect of the new game being wasted.

As far as clubs like Saracens are concerned the new U13 system does nothing solve the problem of keeping girls in the sport, made worse by girls being unable to start playing club rugby until they are 13. If anything it has made things worse.

The result is that Saracens are reporting that they may have a tiny handful of U15s next season, and barely a dozen U18s (if that). Other traditionally major clubs - clubs that have produced some of the current young England players (Rochford for example) - are also reported to be in the same position. Elsewhere other developments, like some local county RFUs taking over running the girls game, has been disastrous with  the collapse of county "cluster" teams (never mind girls club rugby). On this one at least Hertfordshire - which has always gone its own way - remains immune... for the time being.

Overall, therefore, it seems (from admittedly little available evidence) that both sides may have been right. The new game has been more popular in schools, RFU can claim that player numbers are up and keep its grant money BUT for clubs - the training ground for the England team of 2020 and beyond - unless they are lucky to have connections with schools offering new game, it is killing girls' rugby.

The good news is that the RFUW are reviewing the effect of the new game... the bad news is that the review  has already collected all its feedback it wants (was your club asked?) and will be making a decision next month. There will also be reporting on U15 and U18 leagues, which continue to have the problems many predicted when they were introduced.

A new star from the Lone Star State?

Take a look at the face, and remember the name - Amelia "Meya" Bizer. England - and all of us - may be seeing quite a lot of her in the future.

Rugby football's junior rules discourage, or actively ban, kicking until very late in a player's development - its pretty much the last skill that is added to the mix. This is mainly to stop football-obsessed boys - who will have been playing the round ball game from the moment they could walk - from putting boot to leather all the time and never developing handling skills.

This is all well and good for boys, but it remains a major barrier to the girls' game. Girls' pre-rugby sporting background is invariably sports like netball and rounders. Young girls just don't play sports where you kick, and this is a major reason for the women's rugby's greatest weakness - kicking.

[Incidentally, you'd think that any sensible governing body promoting the women's game would actively encourage kicking from as early an age as possible in order to overcome this problem, so (for those who have worked with the RFUW) it can come as no surprise to learn that the new U13 rules - which RFUW are thoughtlessly and painfully forcing through for next season - will ban all kicking. No girl in England will be able to put foot to ball until the start of new two-year U15 band (school year 9!). Perhaps the RFUW are embarrassed by the size of some of England's recent wins and want to close the gap...]

Its a problem that seems to be worldwide and, as a result, pretty much all of the world's best kickers are imports from other football codes. Soccer has given us (amongst others) Caroline Colley (Scotland) and Nicole Beck (Australia), Gaelic football produced several Irish stars, most notably Niamh Briggs (Ireland) - and now it looks like we have the ultimate cross-over. Because Meya Bizer, who debuted for the US U20 team in last week's Nations Cup, comes from American football.

"I didn't know there was women's American football" I can hear some of you say. True - there isn't. And that is, in a way, the point, because Meya - 18-year old graduate of Woodlands High School in Texas (somewhere near Houston, apparently) - plays the game with the men. What is more, she is currently attending the University of Saint Mary’s (Leavenworth, Kansas) on a (American) football scholarship won in competition with 500 male players of her own age.

How come? Well, partly because she has been playing the game since she was 11 or 12, but mainly because she is a kicker. And a very good one. For those who don't know much about this slightly weird cousin of rugby union, American football allows for specialist players to come on and off the bench at key points in the game. So, if the team needs to take a kick, they wheel on the kicker who does just that. Admittedly they then have to stay on the field until the next break in play (which is never very long), but it does mean that Meya occasionally has to get into contact, a "problem" which copes with admirably, from all accounts!

This is useful as Meya's opportunities to play rugby in Woodlands were limited by her local club barely having enough players to form a team. However, she went to the US U17 trials, was spotted by U20 team coach, and fast-tracked into the state U19 side.

Rugby was all a bit different to the game she grew up with - “I expected it to be fast, but didn’t expect it to go from a ruck and all the way through the back line all within about three seconds,” she says but after converting a 40-yard penalty in a West vs East trial game US coach Bryn Chivers knew he'd found something.

Meya is far from the finished article yet - she probably needs to develop her kicking in play - but it is clear that she has given the national U20 team a new option. Any penalties within range (and for Meya that is pretty much anything in the opposition half) can now be turned into points, while most tries are now worth seven points for the USA instead of five. That was the crucial difference between the USA and Canada in the game that decided who would make the final - both scored two tries, but Meya added a penalty and a conversion to give the USA a 15-10 victory. She also kicked two penalties in that final.

Come WRWC 2014 Meya will be 21, with five years of rugby experience behind her (not to mention four years of American football at university level). The USA will be aiming to reclaim their place in the world's top four - and, just as Nichole Beck helped transform Australia - it could be Meya that helps USA achieve their ambition.

RFUW plans next season

Details of the groupings for next seasons U15 and U18 leagues are out. Letchworth are not included - and are not along. The number of leagues in both age bands has shrunk significantly - down to six in both cases. North Eastern teams are particularly notable by their absence, and clubs from the South West are also rather thin on the ground:

U15 leagues:

	North		Midlands		Central
1	Tyldesley / Waterloo	1	Melbourne	1	London Irish
2	Liverpool St Helens	2	Hinckley	2	Welwyn
3	Eccles	3	Old Northamptonians	3	Berks Baa Baas
4	West Park Leeds	4	Spalding	4	Worcester
5	Vale of Lune	5	Wellingborough	5	Paviors
6	Manchester	6	Vixens	6	Oxford
7	Northwich	7	Ashby	7	Oxford Vale
8	Glossop	8		8
	South		London North		South East
1	Oakmeadians	1	Lakenham Hewett	1	Medway
2	Solent Sirens	2	Thurrock Chicks	2	Guildford / Camberley
3	Ellingham and Ringwood	3	Newmarket	3	Folkestone
4	South Sussex Barbarians	4	Rochford Hundred	4	O A Saints
5	Aylesford Bulls	5	Ealing Jades	5	Hertford
6	Swanage and Wareham	6	Saracens	6	Hackney

U18 leagues:

	South		North		Central
1	Oakmedians	1	Tyldesley / Waterloo	1	Paviors
2	Solent Sirens	2	Eccles	2	Lichfield
3	Ellingham and Ringwood	3	Preston G / Vale	3	Welwyn
4	South Sussex Barbarians	4	Manchester	4	Worcester
5	Aylesford / H 3	5	Bridgnorth	5	Berks Baa Baas
6	Swanage and Wareham	6	Liverpool St Helens	6	Oxford
7		7	West Park Leeds	7	London Irish
8		8	Glossop	8
	Midlands U18		London South		London North
1	Old Northamptonians	1	Thanet W	1	Newmarket
2	Aylestone St James	2	Folkestone	2	Lakenham Hewett
3	Sleaford	3	Medway	3	Thurrock Chicks
4	Hinckley	4	Guildford	4	Rochford Hundred
5	Vixens	5		5	Ealing Jades
6	Melbourne	6		6	Saracens
7	Eccleshall	7		7

Beyond that plans for the U13 band continue to exist in some strange parallel world. RFUW insist the new age band will be launched in September, despite there being...

• No coaches trained to teach the new game
• No referees trained to officiate the new game
• No school PE departments trained to offer the game (only six weeks to the end of term...)
• No sign of the promised DVD illustrating the new game (due to have been circulated last month)
• No documents of any sort, beyond the self-contradictory draft rules issued a few weeks ago
• No answer to many requests for information about the supposedly successful trails carried out last year
• No evidence that any girls involved in the above trials have moved into the U15 game

I could go on. Its like watching a runaway express train thundering down the line to certain doom, except in this case its fully manned by people quite capable of putting on the brakes but determined to go ahead because They Know Best.

What is even more remarkable is when you look at the cause of this..., well "lunacy" would not be pushing it. Overall rugby has lost players about 16% of its players over the past four years - but all of the loss seems to have been among adults. Junior player numbers (leaving aside one strange result in the 2008-9) are almost unchanged:

Once a month participation in rugby union, 18-19 year olds:

2007-08 - 34,600 players

2008-09 - 50,200 players

2009-10 - 35,600 players

2010-11 - 35,200 players

So its all very odd. Nothing seems to be being done to make changes the adult game where the "problem" is (and truth be told the loss of players will be entirely a men's problem), but instead RFUW are training their guns and risking all on the one area of the game where things are going quite well.

That is assuming it is a problem with rugby at all. Of 86 sports and past-times surveryed, 46 show a loss of players - and many are doing far worse than rugby. Rowing, weightlifting, rugby league, water-skiing, gymnastics - they have all lost over 30% of their players. What are the big gainers? Walking, body building, rafting, caving, cross training, judo, angling... If there is a theme here at all, it is a move from formal, organised sports and team sport to informal, individual past-times. It is a change affecting most sports, and is probably nothing to do with the nature of the sports and everything to do with how much spare time people can commit.

Its certainly nothing whatsoever to do with the physicality of rugby union!